Ontario Got the Worst Downgrade in the Country
According to TD economist Rishi Sondhi, Ontario and British Columbia received the sharpest cuts to both sales and price forecasts. Ontario was previously expected to see a 13 per cent jump in home sales this year. That number has been revised all the way down to a projected 3.2 per cent decrease in transactions.
Prices took an even bigger hit on paper. TD had originally forecast a modest price gain for Ontario in 2026. Instead, they now expect Ontario home prices to fall roughly four per cent year-over-year.
The bank's report points to ongoing affordability challenges, a sluggish economy, and a general sense of uncertainty keeping buyers on the sidelines. Sondhi noted that pent-up demand simply hasn't materialized the way economists expected, and that further price drops may actually be needed before buyers start re-entering the market in meaningful numbers.
In other words — if you're waiting for the spring rush to bail you out, it might not be coming this year.
Why So Many Ontario Homeowners Are Stuck Right Now
This forecast confirms a pattern that homeowners across the province are already living through. Listings are sitting. Open houses are quiet. Price reductions aren't generating the interest they used to.
There are a few big reasons this is happening all at once:
Buyers are waiting for the bottom. When major banks are publicly calling for price declines, it sends a clear signal to buyers: don't rush. That means fewer offers, longer days on market, and more negotiating power shifting to the buyer side. For sellers, that's a tough position to be in — especially if you need to sell on a timeline.
Affordability is still a major barrier. Even with rate cuts over the past year, the math still doesn't work for a lot of would-be buyers. High prices combined with elevated living costs mean that the pool of qualified, motivated buyers is significantly smaller than it was a few years ago.
Economic uncertainty is keeping everyone cautious. TD's report specifically mentions upcoming CUSMA trade negotiations and broader geopolitical tensions as factors weighing on confidence. When people aren't sure about their jobs, their businesses, or the economy, big purchases like homes get put on hold.
For homeowners who need to sell — whether it's because of a job relocation, divorce, financial pressure, an inherited property, or simply not being able to carry the costs anymore — waiting for conditions to improve isn't always an option.
When the Market Won't Cooperate, You Still Have Options
Here's the part that most articles about housing forecasts don't tell you: a slow market doesn't mean you're trapped.
If your property has been sitting with no offers, if you've already dropped the price and still aren't getting traction, or if the idea of paying another six months of mortgage, insurance, property tax, and maintenance costs while waiting for a buyer makes your stomach turn — there's another path.
A cash sale lets you skip the uncertainty entirely.
When you sell to a cash home buyer, you're removing all the variables that are making this market so frustrating right now. There's no waiting for a buyer to get approved for a mortgage. No conditions. No financing falling through at the last minute. No staging, no endless showings, no hoping the appraisal comes in high enough.
You get a firm offer, you pick a closing date that works for you, and you move on with your life.
Who Benefits Most From a Cash Sale in This Market?
Cash home buying isn't the right fit for every seller — but in a market like this one, it's the right fit for more people than you might think. Here are some of the situations where it makes the most sense:
You've already listed with no results. If your home has been sitting on the MLS for 60, 90, 120+ days and you've already done one or more price reductions, continuing to wait is costing you money every single month. A cash offer gives you a definitive exit.
Your property needs work. One of the biggest reasons homes aren't selling in a soft market is condition. Buyers have the luxury of being picky right now, and anything that needs repairs, updating, or renovation gets passed over. Cash buyers purchase properties as-is — no repairs, no renovations, no cleaning required.
You're dealing with a life event. Divorce, estate settlement, job loss, relocation, health issues — none of these wait for the housing market to recover. If you need certainty and speed, a cash sale delivers both.
You're carrying costs you can't afford. Every month your property sits unsold, you're paying mortgage interest, property taxes, insurance, utilities, and maintenance. In a declining market, you might also be watching your equity shrink. At some point, the cost of waiting exceeds the discount you'd take on a cash sale.
Your property is unique or difficult to finance. Rural properties, homes with structural issues, properties with code violations, multi-unit buildings that don't fit neatly into standard mortgage criteria — these are all harder to sell through traditional channels, and even harder in a slow market.
What TD's Forecast Means Going Forward
TD does project a rebound in 2027, with home sales expected to jump around 9.6 per cent nationally and prices climbing roughly 2.7 per cent. But that's a forecast made today about conditions a year from now — and as this latest revision proves, forecasts can change fast.
If your situation requires action now, building your plans around a prediction about next year is risky. The costs of holding a property through another 12 to 18 months of a soft market can add up to tens of thousands of dollars — and there's no guarantee the recovery will be strong enough, or soon enough, to make the wait worthwhile.
You Don't Have to Wait for the Market to Decide Your Timeline
At Sell Your Property In Ontario, we buy houses across the province for cash. No commissions, no conditions, no repairs needed. We work with homeowners in every kind of situation — from properties that won't sell on the MLS to homes that need significant work to estates that need to close quickly.
If TD's forecast has you rethinking your options, or if you've been stuck trying to sell and just want a straightforward path forward, we'd like to hear from you.
Get a no-obligation cash offer on your Ontario property today.
Visit sellyourpropertyinontario.ca or give us a call. There's no pressure, no commitment, and no cost to find out what your property is worth in a cash sale.
Sources: TD Economics housing forecast report, March 26, 2026, via The Canadian Press / Yahoo Finance Canada.
