Toronto Home Sales Hit a 1998 Low — Why Ontario's Buyer's Market May Be Your Last Window to Sell

For years, Ontario homeowners have told themselves the same story: housing always comes back. Prices might dip. Sales might slow. But wait long enough and the market reliably rewards patience.

That story is now being tested in ways it hasn't been tested since the late 1990s.

The Greater Toronto Area just recorded home resales activity at levels not seen since 1998 — an era before the housing boom, before the condo explosion, before most current homeowners even bought their first place. That isn't a blip. That's a structural shift in who is buying and at what price.

6.0 Months of Inventory in Ontario
(Q1 2026 — Highest in Over a Decade)

In real estate, "months of inventory" is the single most important number nobody talks about. It measures how long it would take to sell every active listing at the current pace of sales. Under 4 months is a seller's market. 4 to 6 months is balanced. Above 6 months is officially a buyer's market.

Ontario is now sitting at 6.0 months. The GTA is at 4.3. And that's after a surge in March sales that economists described as "underwhelming" given how low expectations had fallen.

The Data Ontario Sellers Keep Ignoring

Here's the reality check nobody in the real estate industry wants to deliver to their clients:

-7.4% GTA Home Price Index Year-Over-Year

10 Consecutive Months of GTA Price Declines

4 Straight Years of Declining Canadian Prices

Four years. That's how long Canadian home prices have been falling. Not "slowing." Not "cooling." Actually falling. The MLS Home Price Index peaked in early 2022 and has been drifting lower ever since.

In Ontario specifically, the damage is concentrated in exactly the markets where most people think they still have 2022 equity:

• GTA condos are down roughly 6% in Q1 2026 alone

• Detached homes in Durham Region are down around 3% year-to-date

• Southern Ontario manufacturing markets (Windsor, London, Hamilton) have been hit hardest by U.S. trade friction

• Ottawa and Kitchener-Waterloo have held up better but are seeing rising days-on-market

"Active home listings hover near decade highs in Ontario and British Columbia, fueling more intense competition between sellers. Sellers must make increasingly larger price concessions to get deals done with buyers lacking confidence."— RBC Economics, April 2026 Housing Update

Why This Buyer's Market Is Different

Every housing slowdown since the 1990s has eventually reversed. So why are economists sounding more cautious this time? Three reasons — and all three directly affect whether you should sell now or wait.

1. The Renewal Wave Hasn't Even Peaked

CMHC data shows roughly 60% of Canadian mortgages are renewing in 2025-2026 — around 1.2 million households. Most of these homeowners locked in rates below 2% during the pandemic. They're now renewing at 4.04% to 4.29%.

A chunk of those renewing owners simply cannot absorb the payment increase. They'll be forced to list. That's more supply hitting a market that already has too much. And the biggest wave of renewals is still ahead, concentrated in the second half of 2026.

2. Affordability Hasn't Actually Improved

Yes, mortgage rates are lower than the 2024 peak. But incomes in Ontario have not kept pace with home prices, and the labour market is softening — particularly in Southern Ontario manufacturing hubs exposed to U.S. tariffs. Even with lower rates, the typical Ontario buyer can qualify for less house today than they could in 2021.

3. The Iran Oil Shock Just Killed Rate-Cut Hopes

Until late February, financial markets were pricing in more Bank of Canada rate cuts through 2026. Then Brent crude spiked past $90 on Iran war fears. Bond yields jumped. Fixed mortgage rates followed. CREA downgraded its 2026 forecast on April 16, cutting projected sales growth from 5.1% to just 1% — and directly blamed "the oil shock."

The Hard Math

TD Bank just revised its 2026 Ontario home price forecast from +0.6% to -4%. On a $750,000 home, that's a $30,000 decline this year alone.

Waiting for a recovery that analysts themselves no longer believe in isn't a strategy — it's a slow-motion price cut.

Who Should Be Selling Right Now:

Not every Ontario homeowner needs to panic. If you have a sub-3% mortgage, stable employment, and no plans to move for five-plus years, holding is defensible. But there are four situations where waiting is actively costing money:

You're Renewing in the Next 12 Months

If your mortgage is up for renewal before April 2027, do the math now — not the week before your rate hold expires. A jump from 1.9% to 4.3% on a $600,000 mortgage is about $860 more per month. If that number stresses you out, you're better off selling on your own timeline than being forced to list in a year when the market has another 4% to give.

You Already Planned to Downsize

If retirement, empty-nesting, or downsizing was on your five-year plan anyway, pulling the trigger in 2026 is almost certainly better than waiting. You're selling into a buyer's market, yes — but you're also buying into one. And in a declining market, sellers who move faster generally win.

You're Carrying a Second Property

Investment properties, cottages, and inherited homes are the first things Ontario homeowners tend to sell under financial pressure. Getting ahead of the renewal wave means listing before everyone else does the same calculation.

The Home Needs Major Work

In a 2021-style market, buyers would tolerate a dated kitchen. In a 6-months-of-inventory market, they won't. If your home needs $40,000 to $100,000 of work to compete on the open market, a cash sale often nets more than listing traditionally and accepting buyer concessions, inspection credits, and price reductions.

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The "Wait It Out" Math Is Broken

The strongest argument against selling right now is the one most homeowners instinctively make: "I'll just wait until prices come back."

Here's the problem with that plan in April 2026:

• CREA, TD, RBC, and CMHC have all downgraded their 2026 forecasts in the past 60 days

• Bond markets are pricing in a 75% chance of a Bank of Canada rate hike — not a cut — by year-end

• 1.2 million mortgage renewals are still pressing down on inventory

• The Iran conflict has no defined end date

• USMCA renegotiation in 2026 adds another layer of Ontario-specific trade risk

Every one of those factors points in the same direction. There is no credible near-term scenario where Ontario home values suddenly jump 10% and reward patient sellers. The most optimistic mainstream forecast for Ontario in 2026 is roughly flat. The realistic case is another leg down.

"The days of listing high and letting bidding wars do the work are over. Today's successful sellers are the ones pricing competitively from day one."— Ontario Real Estate Market Analysis, Spring 2026

What a Smart Ontario Seller Does This Spring

If you've decided selling makes sense, the next question is how. There are really only two viable paths in a buyer's market:

Path A: List Traditionally — But Price Aggressively

This works if your home shows well, is in a desirable pocket, and you have the financial runway to sit on the market for 30 to 90 days. Price 3-5% below recent comparable sales, stage properly, and be ready to negotiate. Expect conditions on financing and inspection. Expect buyers to ask for credits.

Path B: Sell Directly for Cash

This works if speed matters, condition is an issue, or you simply don't want to gamble on where the market goes over the next six months. A direct cash sale closes in days, not months. No showings, no staging, no contingencies. The number is lower than a perfect traditional sale — but it's often higher than a traditional sale that drags into a further-declining market.

The right path depends on your property, your timeline, and how much risk you're willing to carry into a market that major Canadian banks have stopped being optimistic about.

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Sources: Royal Bank of Canada Economics (March-April 2026 Housing Market Update, April 2026 Local Real Estate Markets report); Canadian Real Estate Association April 16, 2026 forecast downgrade; TD Bank 2026 Housing Forecast Revision; CMHC 2026 Mortgage Renewal Outlook; WOWA Toronto Housing Market data, April 2026; Bank of Canada policy statement, March 18, 2026. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or real estate advice. Every homeowner's situation is different.